China erases the Taiwan Strait dividing line with almost daily incursions

• China’s military has been flying into Taiwan’s ADIZ almost daily since 2020.
• Midline cuts have gone up, effectively obliterating it entirely.
• The incursions, as well as large-scale military exercises, are wearing down Taiwan’s military.

Chinese warplanes pressure Taiwan and all have obliterated an important dividing line, with near-daily incursions creating a dangerous new normal.

Since 2020, Taiwan has issued regular, almost daily updates on incursions by Chinese warplanes into its air defense identification zone. It also documented China’s ongoing efforts to undermine the middle line of the Taiwan Strait, established in 1955.

Researchers Thomas J. PLATracker: organization, followed China’s bolder behavior. A review of data from Taiwan found that incursions into the ADIZ over the past four years have shown a growing rejection of the informal dividing line established for conflict.

China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and the median crossings of the Taiwan Strait have increased sharply, with ADIZ incursions increasing from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63.

A nation’s ADIZ extends well beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When a Chinese aircraft enters Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, it sends a Combat Air Patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft over Taiwan’s ADIZ, and that number nearly doubled in 2022. In 2023, 1,703 aircraft were registered. And 2024 appears to have a record number, with more than 2,000 aircraft registered as of September. They are also no longer confined to one corner of the ADIZ.

Crossings of the middle line have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taiwan, and China has been steadily erasing it entirely. During a recent exercise over Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes crossed it, marking a single-day high. A few years ago, Taiwan could see hundreds of people crossing the border, but within months.

“We have become desensitized to the large number of warplanes flying across the middle lane of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago, that was unheard of. Now it’s another Thursday.”

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using its growing military power to push for reunification, raising concerns in Taipei, the United States and other Western countries that China could one day accept blockade or large-scale invasion To force Taiwan to yield to Beijing’s authority.

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Beijing’s tactics run the gamut of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and massive military exercises aimed at forcing the Taiwanese people to renounce independence.

Two recent joint exercises, Joint Sword 2024-A and Joint Sword 2024-B, saw China’s People’s Liberation Army effectively encircle Taiwan, simulating how it could blockade key ports and areas, attack naval and on ground targets. and capture territory.

During “Joint Sword 2024-B”, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense announced that a record number of Chinese military aircraftmore than 150, flew to his ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, said that China aims to “undermine stability and the status quo.”

Chinese incursions tire Taiwanese forces

The almost daily incursions of the ADIZ not only change the status quo of the region; they are also draining Taiwan’s military.

In October 2020, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said that Taipei’s air force and navy had spent almost $1 billion to monitor Chinese flights. Since then, Taiwan has adjusted its responses to ADIZ violations to retain resources, but is still taxed.

In this dire situation, “the concern is the continued degradation of Taiwan’s military assets and the outflow of Taiwan’s military personnel,” Shattuck said, explaining that China is “exploiting” Taiwan’s military capabilities, “flooding the field and forcing Taiwan to choose what it deserves.” answer”.

That degradation could ultimately weaken Taiwan’s military if one of China’s large-scale military exercises suddenly becomes the real deal, and since U.S. aid to Taiwan is “long overdue and overdue,” Shattuck said, it could hamper Taiwan’s preparedness.

“The middle line of the Taiwan Strait, a de facto border that created some semblance of cross-strait stability, no longer exists,” and “Taiwan cannot push back against these PRC incursions on all fronts,” Lewis and Shattuck recently wrote.

They said it was a stalemate, arguing that while Chinese military actions around Taiwan “have been normalized and are part of the ever-deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” Taipei and Washington still have cards to play.

Taiwan has spent years in a difficult relationship with Beijing, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has called Lai a “separatist”.

In his inauguration speech, Lai pledged to uphold Taiwanese democracy as a global beacon, calling on China to end its intimidation against Taiwan. The speech inflamed the relationship even more, and shortly after “Joint Sword 2024-A”. Lai toned down the rhetoric during a National Day speech earlier this month, showing restraint in calls for peace and understanding.

“Lai’s National Day speech shows that Taipei is trying to find ways to offer China an olive branch while maintaining its claims of Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty,” Amanda Xiao, senior China analyst at the Crisis Group, told BI. But China’s response, “Joint Sword 2024-B,” was fiery and sent a message.

Regardless of what Lai says or how he approaches the relationship, Shattuck said China does not trust him.

“It no longer matters what kind of olive branches the DPP president can extend because Beijing will not accept them,” he said, explaining that “Beijing is trying to accelerate the squeeze on Taiwan’s own sovereign territory.” This has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

As the Chinese military continues its incursion into Taiwan’s ADIZ, Washington and its allies “must remain vigilant in protesting these actions to make it clear that Taiwan’s military coercion is unacceptable,” Shattuck said.

“It is unrealistic to claim that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop PRC air and sea incursions around Taiwan,” he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. “Washington,” they said, “should work to enhance Taiwan’s ability to monitor the situation around its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to push back if necessary.”